The Tokai Earthquake of the Future

The great Tokai Earthquake of the 21st century has not happened yet, but Japan has been getting ready for it for over 30 years. All of Japan is earthquake country, but its most dangerous part is on the Pacific coast of the main island Honshu, just southwest of Tokyo. Here the Philippine Sea plate is moving under the Eurasia plate in an extensive subduction zone. From studying centuries of earthquake records, Japanese geologists have mapped out segments of the subduction zone that seem to rupture regularly and repeatedly. The part southwest of Tokyo, underlying the coast around Suruga Bay, is called the Tokai segment. Tokai Earthquake History The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2012, it has been 158 years and counting. These facts were put together in the 1970s by Katsuhiko Ishibashi. In 1978, the legislature adopted the Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act. In 1979, the Tokai segment was declared an area under intensified measures against earthquake disaster. Research began into the historic earthquakes and tectonic structure of the Tokai area. Widespread, persistent public education raised awareness about the expected effects of the Tokai Earthquake. Looking back and visualizing forward, we are not trying to predict the Tokai Earthquake at a specific date  but to clearly foresee it before it happens. Worse than Kobe, Worse than Kanto Professor Ishibashi is now at the University of Kobe, and perhaps that name rings a bell: Kobe was the site of a devastating quake in 1995 that the Japanese know as the Hanshin-Awaji earthquake. In Kobe alone, 4571 persons died and more than 200,000 were housed in shelters; in total, 6430 people were killed. More than 100,000 houses collapsed. Millions of homes lost water, power, or both. Some $150 billion in damage was recorded. The other benchmark Japanese quake was the Kanto earthquake of 1923. That event killed more than 120,000 people. The Hanshin-Awaji earthquake was magnitude 7.3. Kanto was 7.9. But at 8.4, the Tokai Earthquake will be substantially larger. Tracking The Tokai Segment With Science The seismic community in Japan is monitoring the Tokai segment at depth as well as watching the level of the land above it. Below, researchers map a large patch of the subduction zone where the two sides are locked; this is what will let loose to cause the quake. Above, careful measurements show that the land surface is being dragged down as the lower plate puts strain energy into the upper plate. Historical studies have capitalized on records of the tsunamis caused by past Tokai earthquakes. New methods allow us to partially reconstruct the causative event from the wave records. Preparation for the Next Tokai Earthquake The Tokai Earthquake is visualized in scenarios used by emergency planners. They need to create plans for an event that will likely cause about 5800 deaths, 19,000 serious injuries, and nearly 1 million damaged buildings in Shizuoka Prefecture alone. Large areas will be shaken at intensity 7, the highest level in the Japanese intensity scale. The Japanese Coast Guard recently produced unsettling tsunami animations for the major harbors in the epicentral region. The Hamaoka nuclear power plant sits where the hardest shaking is foreseen. The operators have begun further strengthening of the structure; based on the same information, popular opposition to the plant has increased. In the aftermath of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the plants very future existence is clouded. Weaknesses of the Tokai Earthquake Warning System Most of this activity does good, but some aspects can be criticized. First is its reliance on the simple recurrence model of earthquakes, which is based on studies of the historical record. More desirable would be a physical recurrence model based on understanding the physics of the earthquake cycle, and where the region sits in that cycle, but that is still not well known. Also, the law set up an alert system that is less robust than it seems. A panel of six senior seismologists is supposed to assess the evidence and tell the authorities to make a public warning announcement when the Tokai Earthquake is imminent within hours or days. All the drills and practices that follow (for instance, freeway traffic is supposed to slow to 20 kph) assume that this process is scientifically sound, but in fact, theres no consensus on what evidence actually foreshadows earthquakes. In fact, a previous chairman of this Earthquake Assessment Committee, Kiroo Mogi, resigned his position in 1996 over this and other flaws in the system. He reported its grave issues in a 2004 paper in Earth Planets Space. Maybe a better process will be enacted someday—hopefully, ​long before the next Tokai Earthquake.

Essay about Four Charges Brought Agains Socrates in the...

This essay I will talk about four charges that were brought against Socrates in the work Apology by Plato. After describing the charge I will then go on to talk about why I think each of them are completely fake. There were four charges that were brought against Socrates. They were that he argued the weaker claim over the stronger claim, that he argue the physical over the metaphysical, that he was against the gods and that he was corrupting the youth. All of these charges are completely and utterly fake and I will tell you why. Plato said Socrates was charges with arguing the weaker claim over the stronger claim. The actual quote from the essay is â€Å"He makes the weaker argument defeat the stronger and he teachers these doctrines to†¦show more content†¦The actual claim from the passage was â€Å"Socrates is an evil-doer and a curious person, who searches into things under the earth and in the heavens†. I mean for real, what kind of bogus crime is this? Socrates didn’t argue the physical over the metaphysical. His main goal was to find knowledge, he wanted to instill his knowledge onto others, and he wanted to make the world a better place. In the passage I don’t think Socrates really cared too much about this charge anyway. He says â€Å"I will ask you then to assume with me that my opponents are of two kinds: one more recent, the other from the past. I will answer the latter first, for these accusations you heard long before the others†. He says that people before him otherwise known as the Sophists are the people who have been committing this crime, even when this crime isn’t really a crime. For these Sophists were held at a high social status for doing these things. Socrates also said that people claim that he can walk in the air. Socrates never lied about or pretended to know about this, however he doesn’t throw out the probability that it is possible threw teachings. The third charge that was made ag ainst Socrates was that he went against the gods. One of the accusers named Meletus alternates between accusing Socrates that he is atheist and accusing him of having belief in new gods rather than the old gods. Now you tell me what you think of this. FirstShow MoreRelated The Apology1451 Words   |  6 Pagesdiscussing the four charges brought against Socrates in Plato’s essay The Apology# and why exactly each of these charges is completely fictitious. The four charges brought against Socrates were that he argued the physical over the metaphysical, he argued the weaker claim over the stronger claim, he went against the gods, and he was corrupting the youth (Singer, lecture, 9-15-11). Each of these four charges is false for varying reasons and I will be addressing each explanation on why each charge is a completeRead MorePlatoSocrates Excellence in Virtue3650 Words   |  15 PagesPlato amp; Socrates: Excellence in Virtue introduction â€Å"Socrates’ positive influence touches us even today† (May 6) and we can learn a great deal about him from one of his students, Plato. It is in Plato’s report of Socrates’ trial a work entitled, Apology, and a friend’s visit to his jail cell while he is awaiting his death in Crito, that we discover a man like no other. Socrates was a man following a path he felt that the gods had wanted him to follow and made no excuses for his lifeRead MoreWhy Was Socrates Final Speech So Ineffective?1407 Words   |  6 PagesSocrates: Why was his final speech so ineffective? Although the Platonic dialogue chronicling Socrates death is called the Apology, many critics have noted that Socrates seems notably unapologetic throughout the speech, thus raising the ire of his Athenian listeners. Socrates is openly confrontational in his address to an Athenian jury of his peers, and his philosophical elitism seems designed to confirm, rather than disprove the image the prosecution had created of an unstable, dangerous, andRead MoreEssay on Socrates2152 Words   |  9 PagesThe First Advocate for Free Speech – Socrates The precise facts about how and why the great Greek philosopher Socrates was sentenced and executed remains one of the biggest puzzles in history, even to this day. Socrates lived and philosophized in Athens, which is said to be the ancient model for a democracy. Yet, it seems like the Athenians sentenced to death a respected member of their society for speaking his mind and standing by his principles. Now how democratic is that? What makes theRead MoreEssay on Socrates2140 Words   |  9 PagesThe First Advocate for Free Speech – Socrates The precise facts about how and why the great Greek philosopher Socrates was sentenced and executed remains one of the biggest puzzles in history, even to this day. Socrates lived and philosophized in Athens, which is said to be the ancient model for a democracy. Yet, it seems like the Athenians sentenced to death a respected member of their society for speaking his mind and standing by his principles. Now how democratic is that? What makes theRead More Justice for All Ages Essay example4920 Words   |  20 Pagesplagued the ancient philosophers and continues to plague the professional and amateur academic philosophers of today. The question is so hard, because it is quite difficult to know where to begin. Socrates1 spoke of justice in relation to the gods, Plato in relation to an individual’s duty in society, and Achilles, in a somewhat indirect way, in relation to honor and loyalty. All three of these men had very convincing arguments about the true nature of justice, but it is impossible to say now, or mostRead MorePlatos Works Essay examples1881 Words   |  8 PagesWorks In his works, Plato writes about truth, justice, and reality in full detail. His ideas are greatly deep and persuasively argued. It is from him that all western philosophy is a footnote. He describes his view in a series of numerous dialogues. For my report, I have chosen four of his works to study, which I think were his most important. The Republic is a dialogue composed of 10 books. The theme in its entirety is justice. The characters of the dialogue are Socrates, who is the narrator;Read More Socrates Essay examples3029 Words   |  13 PagesSocrates Philosophy was both serious and dangerous, Socrates chose to ignore both. Ignoring the first made him one of the most engaging of all philosophers, ignoring the second was to cost him his life. He was born in a middle class home in Athens, in 470 BCE. His parents were Phaenarete and Sophroniscus. His mother had a reputation for her patient and intuitive skill in delivering babies in and around the neighborhood. The latter, his father was a craftsman, stonecutter by trade. nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;AsRead MorePolitical Philosophy and Plato Essay9254 Words   |  38 Pages SOCRATES Socrates 469 BC–399 BC, was a classical Greek Athenian philosopher. Credited as one of the founders of Western philosophy, he is an enigmatic figure known chiefly through the accounts of later classical writers, especially the writings of his students Plato and Xenophon, and the plays of his contemporary Aristophanes. Many would claim that Platos dialogues are the most comprehensive accounts of Socrates to survive from antiquity. Through his portrayal

What Impact did Social and Economic change have upon Germany, 1870 †1914 Free Essays

The unification of Germany in 1871 acted as a catalyst for industry that enabled a period of rapid growth and change. This growth in industry changed Germany forever socially and economically and it was this change that was to make Germany a great nation, even rivalling Britain itself by 1890. As soon as the Reich was established in 1871, the German economy took off. We will write a custom essay sample on What Impact did Social and Economic change have upon Germany, 1870 – 1914? or any similar topic only for you Order Now Germany possessed huge mineral wealth and this was manipulated to build an incredibly strong economy. Germany possessed areas such as Alsace-Lorraine that contained Europe’s largest source of iron ore that was essential to its growing steel industries. In fact Germany was totally independent due to the abundance of all resources that were necessary for an industry at the time. Germany was developing industrially at an incredibly rapid rate and this is shown through its outputs (fig. 1). However it was not until later that Germany began to found colonies that showed exactly how powerful it had become. Another resource Germany possessed was manpower and plenty of it (fig. 2). In 1870 Germany’s total population was around forty one million, already nine million more than Britain. This total however increased yet further and by 1890 Germany had an even larger population of forty nine million. This huge population provided an incredibly large labour force that could be drawn from as industry continued to grow. The industrialists themselves became very wealthy as industrialisation took hold of Germany. Labour was cheap and so were the raw materials lending to ever increasing profits that rivalled the wealth of the Junkers. Unlike the Junkers however the industrialists did not have any political power and this was what caused future problems. In 1875 there were eight German cartels however as the industrial expansion began to slow and times became ever harder the numbers began to increase. In 1885 Germany boasted ninety such cartels and two hundred and ten just five years later! These cartels began to exercise enormous influence over the development of the Reich and they began to make demands for things such as protective tariffs and later for naval and colonial development. This is where the industrialists began to taste power and the cartels enabled politically minded individuals a chance to have an influence over Germany’s ruling and development however minor. This was all the power someone from the middle class could possess due to Germany’s static class system. Germany was a conservative state and so naturally change was frowned upon. What remained of Germany’s past during the industrialisation was that of the Junkers political monopoly. Bismarck himself was a Junker and one of his main political aims was to maintain the superiority of this upper class. The Junkers also continued to obtain great wealth due to their hold over agriculture. Without the food stuffs that the Junkers provided, Germany would not have been able to grow in the manner that it had. As well as industrialisation, urbanisation was taking place at the same time as Germany’s population was moving from rural areas to cities in search of employment. These people that came in search of work became known as the working class, an entirely new level of German society. It was the industrialists however who actively attempted to draw people from the countryside into the cities. Drawing such large numbers into the cities however created problems such as over crowding which in turn created even more problems such as chronic disease epidemics. As more and more people were drawn to the cities the working class itself grew and as it grew so did it’s political influence. People within the class began to think of ways to improve their lives and began asking for better conditions such as better accommodation and wages. If managed badly the working class could easily revolt and cause untold problems for the government so the authorities began to pay ever more attention to the growing voice of the working class. Both regional and religious differences were perpetuated within the new German State meaning Germany at this time was not totally unified. Each region had its differences. These differences were normally minor in nature however some were greater than others were such as language or religion. The southern areas of Germany were Catholic and the Protestant members refused to totally collaborate with them. This led to political and social arguments that could not easily be resolved. The authorities had to watch how tensions rose and fell between both sides so as to avert any possible serious problems that may have arisen. At this time industrialists began to make demands for expansion within the navy and the founding of colonies. This would create even more trade because of a captive market that only German industry would be involved in. By obtaining naval contracts and supplying the colonies themselves a company could make a lot of profit. However at this time, countries such as Britain and France had taken all the colonies of worth. The only way Germany would gain such useful assets would be to take them by force from their custodians. This action could easily lead to war however and so called for a more aggressive foreign policy that in the future would contribute to Germany’s involvement in world war one. In conclusion the social and economic changes had a massive effect on Germany. Germany began to change into a whole new place and towards the end of the period it also began to develop it’s own identity. Although some problems arose none were too serious as to stop Germany becoming a great nation. The leadership Bismarck supplied enabled Germany to pass through troubled times with ease and differences began to become less of an issue as time went on. However it is ironic that while Bismarck suspected Catholics and Socialists of trying to destroy Germany, it was to be the demands of the industrialists and financiers that led to the downfall of his conservative system. How to cite What Impact did Social and Economic change have upon Germany, 1870 – 1914?, Papers